I once tracked a romantic relationship that I had with someone as a stock. I made an excel spreadsheet with dates, highs, lows, closing price and variables of how the relationship was going. One of the variables that I investigated was the expectation (market’s expectation) going into an encounter (“encounter” is loosely used, so please use your imagination.) This was not easy to calculate because market conditions changed based on the general encounter; if it was a planned encounter the factors for expectations were based on how we last left things. In the event that we had a random encounter, the variables and expectations changed, whom we were with, who had the “home court” advantage, and the outcome obviously was the ultimate the quantifiable number that mattered. What I mean by this is that each time we had an interaction, whether it was a phone call, a random encounter or date I would quantify the value that I put on this person, this value was not a dollar value or even a percentage, it was merely a good quantifiable number range that ranged from 0 to 100. A value of zero indicated that there was no value to put effort into this person because there would be no valuable return at that point in time; that value was never assigned. A value of 100 was putting said person too high up on a pedestal where they were considered the most precious metal in an open, unregulated market, and I was the highest bidder – I would be overpaying.
Within this range I tracked our progress, how comfortable we were and the way we interacted (as company events are marked on real stocks). Obviously, the more time and more frequently we saw each other the less volatility there was in the market aka the relationship.
As things progressed I noticed trends in my actions correlating directly to the upticks and downturns in our relationship. If I “overbought” by making a gesture that overvalued the person, I saw a decline in our progress, and if I “sold off” I saw a comeback in the price and subsequent equilibrium created in our relationship.
In a sense, I had full control over a completely irrational stock in an irrational market. This person consistently possessed the qualities of a “100” stock but “paying 100” for this person was over paying, and would create a precipitous decline in this person’s value. However, creating a lower value created a buying opportunity where the price set as a result of my actions of “selling” off by backing away from the person paid off.
Fear and emotion are relatively newer concepts that have been added to rational economic theory. The only fear that I encountered during this study was the fear of the unknown, which is solved simply by testing a theory.
Given the recent events of the stock market volatility, it has come to my attention that the stock market has been acting the same way I have seen my test relationship portray itself. In mid-July, on the over-priced heels of the end of QE2 when corporate America was releasing earnings results that were well beyond Wall Street’s expectations, the market was essentially a “100.” You couldn’t pay more, but you had to pay more in order to reap the benefits. Now, the market is in panic mode, the market knows that it was put up on pedestal, and we as a nation became too available.
Within this range I tracked our progress, how comfortable we were and the way we interacted (as company events are marked on real stocks). Obviously, the more time and more frequently we saw each other the less volatility there was in the market aka the relationship.
As things progressed I noticed trends in my actions correlating directly to the upticks and downturns in our relationship. If I “overbought” by making a gesture that overvalued the person, I saw a decline in our progress, and if I “sold off” I saw a comeback in the price and subsequent equilibrium created in our relationship.
In a sense, I had full control over a completely irrational stock in an irrational market. This person consistently possessed the qualities of a “100” stock but “paying 100” for this person was over paying, and would create a precipitous decline in this person’s value. However, creating a lower value created a buying opportunity where the price set as a result of my actions of “selling” off by backing away from the person paid off.
Fear and emotion are relatively newer concepts that have been added to rational economic theory. The only fear that I encountered during this study was the fear of the unknown, which is solved simply by testing a theory.
Given the recent events of the stock market volatility, it has come to my attention that the stock market has been acting the same way I have seen my test relationship portray itself. In mid-July, on the over-priced heels of the end of QE2 when corporate America was releasing earnings results that were well beyond Wall Street’s expectations, the market was essentially a “100.” You couldn’t pay more, but you had to pay more in order to reap the benefits. Now, the market is in panic mode, the market knows that it was put up on pedestal, and we as a nation became too available.
The New York Times published an article discussing neurofinance, a relatively new term that has tried to explain how “our primal circuit can, and often do, override our reason when it comes to investing.”
According to this article, investor sentiment changed after the collapse of the markets three years ago. The same can potentially be said about a person’s relationship sentiment following a failed relationship. The failures in the market have proved that people lack confidence in their relationship with the market moving forward. Contrast this to someone being hesitant about entering into a new relationship of any sort after experiencing any type of “relationship malfunction,” and you begin to realize that this crazy time in the market is a lot like life. We never really know what is going to happen next no matter how much we prepare ourselves.
The stock market experience, like the relationship experience will open you up to something new and exotic, those that are old and familiar, those that bring up lots of questions, those that bring you somewhere unexpected, those that bring you far from where you started, and those that bring you back. But the most exciting, challenging and significant relationship of all is the one you have with yourself; and if you can find someone to love you that you love, well, that's just fabulous. In today’s market it is important to find value, be cautious, keep your guard up and most importantly, remember that learning from experience is what builds a beautiful mind.
According to this article, investor sentiment changed after the collapse of the markets three years ago. The same can potentially be said about a person’s relationship sentiment following a failed relationship. The failures in the market have proved that people lack confidence in their relationship with the market moving forward. Contrast this to someone being hesitant about entering into a new relationship of any sort after experiencing any type of “relationship malfunction,” and you begin to realize that this crazy time in the market is a lot like life. We never really know what is going to happen next no matter how much we prepare ourselves.
The stock market experience, like the relationship experience will open you up to something new and exotic, those that are old and familiar, those that bring up lots of questions, those that bring you somewhere unexpected, those that bring you far from where you started, and those that bring you back. But the most exciting, challenging and significant relationship of all is the one you have with yourself; and if you can find someone to love you that you love, well, that's just fabulous. In today’s market it is important to find value, be cautious, keep your guard up and most importantly, remember that learning from experience is what builds a beautiful mind.
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